The tobacco industry in Europe is now undergoing one of the most significant transformations in decades. Traditional cigarettes continue to generate large sales volumes, yet consumer preferences are shifting toward alternatives such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products. The trend is strongly visible in countries like Poland, but the entire European Union is experiencing similar developments. Keeping track of these changes is key for businesses, regulators, and investors, and reliable tobacco market research is a way to do so. It provides evidence-based insights into what consumers want, how regulations affect demand, and where opportunities are hiding.

Why Tobacco Market Research Matters

The tobacco market is complex and shaped by many factors such as health policies, cultural habits, taxation, technology and more. Without proper tobacco market research, businesses risk missing critical developments. For example, one of our respondents – a kiosk owner in Warsaw, recently shared that only a few years ago her customers bought exclusively Marlboro or Camel cigarettes. Today, she estimates that half of her regulars prefer vapes or heated sticks like Iqos or Glo. These shifts may seem trivial but they show the importance of consistent market research in this field.

Tobacco market research provides not just raw numbers but also context. It answers questions such as:

• Why are younger consumers more likely to choose e-cigarettes?
• How do regulations around advertising influence product choice?
• What makes certain regions adopt alternatives faster than others?

For businesses, answers to these questions are not optional, but crucial. Without reliable data, companies risk over-investing in products with declining demand or simply ignoring high-growth alternatives.

A Closer Look on Poland

Poland stands out in Central and Eastern Europe region due to its sizable smoking population and surprisingly rapid adoption of alternatives. According to data from the Polish Cancer Society, the percentage of adult smokers using e-cigarettes or heated tobacco devices has been steadily increasing in recent years. The main drivers of this growth are younger people, especially in urban areas. Accessibility and affordability have played an important role – once prices of traditional cigarettes rose due to taxation, alternatives became more attractive.

Poland’s market highlights both challenges and opportunities. Established cigarette brands remain popular and keep providing steady revenue streams. At the same time, alternative products are creating new categories with strong growth potential. Market researchers see Poland as a indicator for how quickly Central and Eastern Europe will transition.

Another factor shaping the Polish tobacco market is policy. Poland has aligned itself with EU-level tobacco regulation, but national debates about taxation of e-cigarettes and heated products continue. Any increase in excise duties could reshape consumption patterns almost overnight. For tobacco companies, staying ahead requires continuous tracking of both policy and consumer behavior.

The European Context

At the European level, similar patterns can be observed. The European Commission’s 2021 Special Eurobarometer survey on tobacco and related products showed that while the share of daily smokers is gradually declining, the use of e-cigarettes and heated tobacco has grown across the EU. Countries such as Italy, France, and Germany have reported some of the highest adoption rates of e-cigarettes, while heated tobacco products are expanding most rapidly in Central and Eastern Europe.

EU-level regulation significantly impacts the industry. The Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) introduced plain packaging, health warnings, and restrictions on marketing. These measures accelerated the decline of traditional cigarette consumption but also created uncertainty regarding alternative products, as regulatory frameworks are still evolving. The European Commission has already launched consultations on revising the TPD, which may lead to stricter controls on e-cigarettes and heated tobacco devices. For businesses, this means they must adapt quickly to changing rules while maintaining compliance across multiple jurisdictions.

The Rise of Alternative Products

The global significance of alternatives such as heated tobacco and e-cigarettes is now beyond doubt. Statista data indicates that revenue in the e-cigarette market segment in Europe amounted to more than USD 10 billion in 2023, with forecasts pointing to continued strong growth in the coming years. Heated tobacco products, led by brands like IQOS, are carving out an increasingly large share of the market.

Consumer perception plays a decisive role here. Many users see vaping or heated products as “less harmful/healthier” than smoking. Scientifically, all of them bring a certain level of health harm, but perceptions influence behavior directly. Brands have leveraged this by positioning their products as innovative lifestyle choices rather than simply substitutes for cigarettes. In markets like Germany and Italy, advertising campaigns emphasize technology and modernity, while in Eastern Europe, messaging often focuses on affordability and availability.

Public health authorities remain cautious. The World Health Organization has stressed that alternative products are not risk-free. The message was not received fully since the widespread belief in relative harm reduction has fueled demand. This tension between consumer perception and regulatory caution will continue to shape the market.

How to Conduct Tobacco Market Research?

Understanding such a dynamic sector requires various research methodologies. Effective tobacco market research combines quantitative data collection with qualitative insights.

Quantitative Research

• Surveys and panels: track prevalence of smoking, vaping, and heated tobacco use across demographics
• Retail audits and sales data: offer insights into product availability, pricing, and consumer purchasing behavior
• Statistical modeling: can help with projecting future consumption under different tax or regulatory scenarios

Qualitative Research

• Focus groups: explore perceptions of health risks, lifestyle associations, and reasons for switching products
• In-depth interviews: provide nuanced perspectives from retailers, policymakers, or healthcare professionals
• Ethnographic studies: reveal cultural norms and everyday habits that influence tobacco use

Hybrid Approach

The most powerful results come from blending both qualitative and quantitative approaches. For example, a company may conduct large-scale surveys across several European countries to identify adoption rates of e-cigarettes. These findings can then be complemented by focus groups exploring why younger adults see vaping as socially acceptable, while older consumers hesitate to adopt alternatives.

At Stratega, we prioritize this hybrid model. Quantitative metrics deliver scope, while qualitative insights provide depth — together, they form a complete picture. This dual approach helps companies anticipate not only where the market is moving but also why.

Key Insights from Tobacco Market Research

From years of studies and surveys, several patterns consistently emerge:

• Demographic divide: younger consumers (18–34) are far more likely to adopt alternatives, while smokers aged 50+  tend remain loyal to cigarettes (but not always)
• Price sensitivity: increases in excise taxes push consumers toward cheaper or alternative products
• Changing loyalty: heritage brands no longer guarantee lifetime loyalty – flexibility and innovation now win market share.
• Regulatory impact: EU-wide regulations and national tax policies directly influence sales, sometimes shifting consumption almost overnight
• Cultural factors: In Southern Europe, tobacco is often tied to social rituals, slowing down the switch to alternatives. In contrast, Central Europe’s younger urban populations embrace alternatives more quickly.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch

The future of tobacco in Europe will be shaped by several factors:

• Technology: devices are becoming more advanced, offering customizable options such as adjustable nicotine levels and app connectivity.
• Cross-border influence: trends that start in Western Europe often spread quickly eastward. Poland and the Czech Republic are expected to follow patterns established in Germany and Italy.
• Health campaigns: public health authorities will play a decisive role in shaping consumer behavior. If campaigns intensify against e-cigarettes, growth may slow.
• Mergers and acquisitions: Consolidation in the sector will alter competition, particularly among alternative product manufacturers. Major multinational firms continue to buy local players to expand their reach.
• Consumer education: Awareness of ingredients, health risks, and regulations will shape perceptions. Transparency will become an increasingly important competitive advantage.

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